The Rules
How forecasts are scored
Division Bell rewards conviction backed by accuracy. Bold calls win more — and lose more. Hedge to "Unsure" and you stand still.
Conviction pays
Strong Yes and Strong No carry the largest reward and the largest penalty.
Hedging earns a sliver
Unsure earns a small +3 either way — never negative, never dramatic.
Score is reputation
Your Forecast Score drives your position on the public leaderboard. Everyone starts at 0.
The points table
Forecast
Probability
Correct
Wrong
Strong Yes
90%
90%
+10
-10
Yes
70%
70%
+6
-6
Unsure
50%
50%
+3
0
No
30%
30%
+6
-6
Strong No
10%
10%
+10
-10
A worked example
You forecast Strong Yes (90%) on a Bell that resolves YES. Your Forecast Score rises by +10. Had it resolved NO, it would have fallen by −10. A cautious Yes (70%) on the same Bell would have earned +6.