About Division Bell

I'm Ed Barker, the founder of Division Bell.

Outside of Division Bell I run a strategic advisory firm called Havishams, and many years ago I had the privilege of playing solo saxophone for George Michael. In 2019 I also stood as the Conservative parliamentary candidate for Derby South.

But none of those things really explain why I created Division Bell.

This page does.

Like many people, I found political debate was becoming increasingly frustrating.

It wasn't that people disagreed—disagreement is healthy. It was that too many conversations became performative and were about signalling identity rather than making honest predictions.

So I started handling those conversations differently.

I began making small bets with friends.

Not because I cared about the money, but because the moment there was something at stake, people suddenly became much more honest about what they genuinely thought was going to happen. The conversations became calmer, more rational and much more enjoyable.

That was when I realised something.

It's not about the money. It's about accountability.

People don't need financial stakes to have better political conversations. They need reputational stakes. That's where the idea for Division Bell came from.

The aim is very simple.

Every weekday we ask one political forecasting question.

You make your prediction before the outcome is known. Over time you build a Forecast Score that reflects how accurate your political judgement has been.

My hope is that prediction gradually becomes a better form of political debate than simply arguing with one another.

Words are free.

Predictions create accountability.

Whether you're an MP, journalist, special adviser, councillor, party member or simply someone who enjoys politics, everyone starts with exactly the same opportunity: make the call before the answer is known.

Division Bell doesn't have a political agenda. The questions will always be designed to be interesting rather than ideological. My hope is simply that, over time, we'll discover who consistently calls politics well.

Privacy wasn't an afterthought—it was one of the foundations of the site.

I want people to answer honestly.

I want a Labour special adviser to be able to make an honest prediction about the Conservatives without worrying it will leak. I want a Conservative MP to be able to predict Labour's fortunes without wondering whether someone is watching.

That's why your individual forecasts are private.

In fact, I've deliberately built Division Bell so that I can't see your individual forecasts either.

As the administrator, I'm not able to see how individual users have voted, and I'm not able to see who suggested individual Bell questions.

Community verdicts are published only in anonymous, aggregated form unless you choose to share your own prediction publicly.

Politics already produces enough noise.

Division Bell isn't designed to become another endless stream of polls, hot takes or breaking news alerts.

Instead, there's one carefully chosen forecasting question each weekday.

One Bell.

One prediction.

Then we wait to see what happens.

I hope it becomes a small daily ritual for people who enjoy politics.

Yes and no.

I genuinely hope Division Bell becomes a useful snapshot of what politically engaged people think is going to happen.

But I also want it to be fun.

I have a dream of creating the SW1 answer to Wordle. In a world that's becoming increasingly volatile and polarised, games bring people together and I hope that we can create a community that grows over time, and is full of people from across the political divide. Who knows, we might all learn something from each other.

Politics doesn't always have to be angry, and sometimes a game can teach us something. Plus who wants to be bottom of the League Table...!

Division Bell is still in its early days.

I'm building it in public and improving it constantly based on feedback from users (thank you for all your suggestions).

If you've got an idea that would make it better—whether it's a new feature, a better scoring system or simply a more interesting Bell suggestion—I'd genuinely love to hear it.

I don't want to dictate what Division Bell becomes. I'd much rather build it with the people who use it. Who knows where it'll end up. Hopefully we'll create a community that includes people from right across the political spectrum who enjoy putting their judgement to the test—and maybe, along the way, we'll all learn something from one another.

And at some point, there'll be real world social element too – probably involving lions of the red variety and proper beer.